Arkansas Week
Arkansas Week - November 11, 2022
Season 40 Episode 40 | 25m 57sVideo has Closed Captions
Election 2022 Results
Arkansas awaits a new set of public officials. We look at how Arkansas voted and what to expect in January. Guests are Democratic analyst Jay Barth and Republican analyst Richard Bearden.
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Arkansas Week is a local public television program presented by Arkansas PBS
Arkansas Week
Arkansas Week - November 11, 2022
Season 40 Episode 40 | 25m 57sVideo has Closed Captions
Arkansas awaits a new set of public officials. We look at how Arkansas voted and what to expect in January. Guests are Democratic analyst Jay Barth and Republican analyst Richard Bearden.
Problems with Closed Captions? Closed Captioning Feedback
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And hello again everyone, and thanks very much for joining us the suspense.
There wasn't much.
Not in Arkansas, not in this cycle.
Nonetheless, a bit of history made our state elected and handily its first woman governor and the first in American history to succeed her father, at least in the same state.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders was the odds on favorite from the moment she announced her candidacy.
So much so that she forced out of the Republican primary to other candidates, one of whom, early next year, will become the state's first female Lieutenant governor.
And the other, of course, attorney general.
So come January, what?
A couple of familiar faces join us now.
Jay Barth, emeritus professor of political science at Hendrix College, a longtime Democratic activist, and Richard Bearden, political consultant, former executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas.
Gentlemen, thanks for coming in.
Whoever wants to pick it up first.
Obviously, Miss Sanders had a very good night.
There was a lot of speck that she would underperform, and in fact, she did, compared to the others on the ticket.
Of course.
The other rivals anyway.
Didn't have any money right.
Yeah.
I mean I think the question going into to Tuesday was not so much who was going to win this race.
It was always clear that that Sarah Huckabee Sanders was going to win but but what would the gap be and and and obviously there had been some polling that indicated that it was a closer race and that that Chris Jones had is is kind of grassroots campaign had really kind of gotten some momentum and he was maybe going to approach 50 excuse me, 40% or maybe even a little bit.
Better and that was really the question.
He didn't get anywhere near right near that and it really shows that the challenges facing the Democratic Party in the state for the for the near future.
Yeah I agree there was some polling that maybe showed a little bit closer I think there Arkansas polls showed that gap and kind of widened out.
But you know, she won handily 28 point gap.
I think there were a lot of folks that said gosh there's yard signs here.
There's you know somebody anecdotally said in the coffee shop my friends are Republican who voted.
That just didn't materialize so.
Chris Jones would all appeared fine candidate I think he he won Pulaski Jefferson one or 2D counties and surprisingly he did very well in Washington County but outside of that it was a it was a red tide from the governor's race all the way down the ballot and in fact when we talk about this little bit later on it drug Republicans to win some historically Democrat seats in the legislature.
Yeah I think you know the the democratic challenge in the delta was a particular particularly telling I mean those are counties that up and down the the the.
Delta counties that that are on the Mississippi River, Democrats tend to win those counties even in presidential races, etcetera.
They barely want them if they want them.
In many cases they lost those counties really just shows the the the fact that while Jones did I think have some good momentum and some more urban areas, he just did not have a kind of a statewide campaign to even win places he should have won.
One race that drew my eye was the one in Crittenden County where Senator Ingram declined to seek another term and a well known, well regarded.
Murdoch representative one of the Democratic nomination, but did not win by anything near the margins that Mr Ingram routinely racked up.
But I just see that democratic weakening in the bill.
That's right.
There was a 500 vote margin that represented Murdoch A won by and at the same time he won the Senate seat a Republican wins his old House seat.
House seat did reconfigure down there but you know today's point up and down the Mississippi River, traditional strongholds, Pulaski, Jefferson and these Delta Regional counties, traditional strongholds of the of the party if you're a Democrat and Monty Hodges who gives his seat.
To run for Congress picked up by Republican high minority population, I mentioned Reggie Murdoch, David Fielding.
In South Arkansas, High minority population loses, so Republicans end up.
On election night, picking up four seats that were drawn for heavy minority population districts, including the seat up, and that was Megan Godfrey's OC High Latino population with one seat with a four vote margin here in Conway.
So you know there's still votes to be counted there.
Republicans could have had end up having, if they pick up all five seats, an overwhelming night, again drawing deep into seats that have always been on the D side.
Well and Richard said you know it was a red tide in Arkansas and and I think it was and it once again Arkansas kind of operates in an orbit of its own because it was clearly not a red tide nationally it was it it was a very mixed story and Democrats overperformed I think compared to expectations.
But in Arkansas we did our own thing and once again and and I think that's what makes Arkansas politics interesting and no matter the outcome I did think it was very telling that on the for all the the.
Statewide races, there really wasn't a whole lot of gap.
There was a little.
Obviously Chris Jones did a little bit better.
And in the state treasurer's race, there was a little bit of a slide over performance there.
But even there, I mean, we had a pretty flawed Republican candidate.
I think everybody, many people would agree, endorsed the Democrat was endorsed by the statewide newspaper and she didn't really get much traction out of that.
And the way in which it's now all about party rather than personality, which is a real game change from the the 9, the 80s, the 90s, early, early parts of this century, that's a real.
Different kind of Arkansas politics.
Let's go to January if we can.
She miss Sanders alright.
She was guaranteed a veto proof majority in in her party anyway.
It's even as Richard pointed as even gonna be larger and frankly the state treasury right now is stinking rich unless the economy just really tanks.
So what?
How is Miss Sanders going to govern she you know her dad always ran to the right and then moved to the center as a pragmatist when he governed.
Will the party want to take Miss Sanders?
Will there be pressure on her to go farther than?
She really wants to go.
You know, I think because she has such some substantive legislation and in fiscal legislation, I think because she has such a strong mandate and really a really great relationship with the speaker and the incoming President Pro Tem, Bart Hester, I think she's going to have a really smooth sailing session.
The first go round, who knows?
What happens is you go down the the pile, but remember there's 31 or 32 new House members coming in, there's there's 13 news.
Orders, I believe coming in.
So there's going to be a lot of members coming in.
They're going to be on the same learning curve, if you will, as she is.
They're going to look to their leadership in the house and the Senate.
And again with those strong relationships, I think she'll get a lot of information, a lot of the stuff that she wants out to members and be able to get the things bills passed, initiative she wants passed with pretty strong margins.
I think, you know, we don't know a lot about what that agenda is going to be.
I mean she did not provide a lot of detail during this campaign.
Nothing she was criticized.
For that.
And so we don't yet know I mean I think that agenda is being built out.
I know she, she clearly knows what she wants to get done even though it wasn't articulated during the campaign.
I do think a, a big question early on with that with that surplus is you know how much is dedicated to tax cuts of course and then how much is dedicated to some of the the programs that have got a lot of attention such as teacher pay where I think there was a there was a lot of pressure built on raising teacher pay to to more regional.
A level and that's going to be a big question because that's a big dollar dollar amount.
But I would say this, you know and I've been to a lot of events that Sarah was at and she said education initiatives, workforce training and job creation.
And I think she really sees those coupled.
You know I mean the the scores came out Arkansas during the pandemic took a dip and a bunch of the scoring categories.
So I think you're going to see a lot of time and energy put into early reading initiatives and you know.
All that really ties together, if you've got an educated workforce, you can then go out and recruit better paying jobs.
And we're seeing that, you know, in places like Mississippi County, which I think has become the Benton County of Northeast Arkansas, when you've got steel mills, you've got electronic vehicle companies coming in.
So there are some bright spots.
I think she clearly sees we've got to have that educated workforce.
That's got to be a big piece of the job creation and then, as she said in the campaign, cutting taxes.
Was a pay raise.
So, I mean, I think she's got some initiatives.
If you mentioned Steve, she's gonna have the money to do it.
As we're thinking back to our father, the way which he governed, he clearly was very much populist on, yeah, on motion bread and butter issues.
But he did always have you know, social issues that he emphasized his oftentimes that were more symbolic.
I think hers are going to be more expansive, partly pressured by the legislature to do more on on social issues.
And I think that they are, they aren't just symbolic for her.
I think she is more of a true believer on some of those social issues.
That's going to be also very interesting to what degree?
Does that become the show rather than the, the bread and butter issues, which I think is Richard just said, are really what she talked about on the campaign for the most part.
Yeah, Jim, as the other constitutional officers, Jay mentioned the the Treasurer's office, of course, but there were really no surprises on any others.
Miss Rutledge handily won all of the constitutional Republican constitutional candidates just, you know, sailed right in.
Just a lack of a lack of money.
For one thing, and and of course ideology factors into it.
That's right and it is a lack of money.
But I also do think and we saw this, I mean 1012 years ago when when the when the Democrats started losing those ruled districts, you know that had traditionally been for 100 years and suddenly now Republicans are winning state Senate seats and State House seats in the not just the mountain counties in northwest Arkansas which is Jay knows have always been traditionally Republican since the Civil war.
But that started to move into the north.
Central and then sort of northeast when I was D the State Park in the east and South and and and now completely down the delta and and into S Arkansas.
You know when I was head of the state Republican Party we had six Republican senators.
There are now six members of the Democratic Party that are that are in the state Senate and again one by much closer margin than expected.
I think that's probably the parity you're going to see.
I think in the House you're going to see it maybe tick up one or two seats.
Moving forward.
But and again I've been in the wilderness with the Republican Party when we were scrapping $2.00 together for an event, the Democratic Party has a long way to go to rebuild.
I think the only sign of of any kind of hope for the Democratic Party out this race was the win in Washington County.
It was a close win for Chris Jones, but that does begin to finally show a little bit of momentum in Northwest Arkansas.
We got a long way to go, but I think if if the Democrats are going to come back, we've set it for now probably a decade.
It's got to, it's got to happen in northwest.
And they got a little traction but they don't have the resources right now to make the kind of investments to make it well in decade maybe the keyword there because we we we're going to live with these districts that both parties have to live with districts you know for the next 10 years and I was I was struck by a quote in this morning's Democrat or in the yeah I think it was Thursday mornings Democrat Gazette from Mr Pilkington Pilkington who represented Pilkington who coordinate the campaigns the Democratic Party is viewed as Pulaski County and.
Available.
And you look at the numbers and that's pretty close, it is.
But the interesting part about because I went and looked at the Washington County numbers, Jones wins a couple of thousand votes, 3-4 thousand votes, maybe the entire rest of the Republican slate wins.
And every elected official at the courthouse level is, is Republican.
It was before, but they retained it.
So again, he clearly had an appeal, younger voters or whatever.
I think the marijuana initiative won up there fairly handily.
So you may have had young voters that went and picked two races and didn't.
Or anywhere else.
But again, I think you're right, Jay.
I agree if there is growth to be having in the Democrat Party, Democratic Party, it's probably going to be in Northwest Arkansas with the infusion of new people in both parties are going to have to get very competitive up there.
And not only the candidates but their infrastructure and the turnout mechanisms and everything because I think that's going to be Little Rock, Jefferson County 2 anchors.
What happens in Northwest Arkansas could control you know to some degree the parity and the legislature in the coming years.
Take a look at the issues, the ballot issues, if we can, because at this taping anyway, all of them went down and there may be some, still a few votes here and there on the religious freedom thing.
But #1, #1, which would allow the legislature to call itself into session.
Boom, boom.
And you know, polling on that had looked pretty close.
It just got demolished.
I mean, Arkansans aren't, are not, are not, are not into big government.
I think there was, you know, a little grassroots opposition.
This is the one that I thought.
Actually had the best chance of winning of the of the four going in but it got it got demolished and what I say I agree I I don't.
I think there were a lot of people that went in there they knew and I really think it was in the closing week or two where they really focused on recreational marijuana.
And obviously that opposition grew and then it just became a snowball.
I'm against all this stuff, you know I don't know what any of this stuff is and so I'm going to be against all of it.
So again no surprise but.
That it failed as big as it did #2.
#2 is the the would have changed the percentage of votes needed to pass amendments and initiatives and it it also got demolished.
There was a pretty strong campaign against this one really mostly from from the left, but some also, I mean the the right has used the ballot measure pretty successfully over the years and so voters want to keep their control.
This is obviously very important when we get to issue 4 in terms of the future of medical mayor of of recreational marijuana.
Because now it does have a chance to come back down the line.
And I think there's some folks felt they're already planning it.
And yeah, and really the only surprise there is if you, if you were opposed to recreational marijuana, you probably should have voted for two to make it harder to get back on the ballot.
So again, I think it goes back to people were they, they just got up there and I don't know, I'm against all this.
No, no, no, no, no, no.
Like #3, which is religious freedom there.
There may be some maneuvering room there anyway, or in terms of some loose votes, not lose votes, but I mean a recount.
And that was the religious freedom proposal #3, which seemed to have some appeal and it got closer than any of the other three.
Again, my take on that is the the, the, the, the, the Church folks, the evangelicals that came out to vote against recreational marijuana.
Probably looked at that and thought it's a good thing.
Obviously not enough votes to get there, but again, I just don't think.
People knew really what it did and when in doubt, vote no.
And that's what happened.
Yeah, it had a very appealing top level ballot title, but you got below that and it got very confusing, very legalese very quickly.
And I think it was just lots of confusion.
And another word on marijuana now because that was number 4 and that got expensive.
Yeah.
And and the opposition on this really did come from the right and from the left.
For me, very traditional opposition to marijuana as a gateway drug, the same opponents.
That fought medical marijuana, but there was opposition from the left as well.
Folks are really concerned about monopolization of that was laid out in this to really give the current medical license, both dispensaries and and cultivators a lot of power.
And that was really troublesome to a lot of folks who had economics.
Yeah, that economic, imperial, imperialistic argument I heard a lot when I talk to voters about it who really weren't one way or the other on on marijuana per se they didn't like.
The the monopolization yeah I look at all four of these and you know Arkansas on the issues still is pretty popular state these are all you know kind of populist activities but are our positions.
But at the at the statewide level and the partisan level it's very Republican state.
So it's a there is some confusion when you take the partisan label away where our Kansans really are on some of these issues and you know I would say this that last push on the the recreational marijuana I mean it was it was a good ad but but it.
Really, I think laid out to voters that were opposed to it how much they needed to be out and get against it because it was.
The premise was it'll be just like buying a 6 pack.
And I think people started to then think there'll be dispensaries all over my neighborhood, just like a package store because again, the the fact that it flipped so heavy upside down with such a.
Huge amount of money raised, 13 million.
I think it's worth the last report was $13 million raised.
It gets about a million and a half, $2,000,000 against it.
You would have thought they had all the tools to get there.
But again, I think Arkansas maybe just went.
Not now, maybe not ever.
Maybe they come back.
Who knows?
We ought to mention our US senators, less Mr Bozeman, who had won his his third term in the Senate quite easily.
It was the other senator who made maybe a bit more news by saying what he isn't going to run.
Or in two years.
And of course that's Mr Cotton.
Richard you know crowded field.
Tom Sarah Cotton has two young small children.
You know we talked a little bit earlier about the red wave that didn't take place Santa he has three that's that's true.
And maybe Governor DeSantis has a bug right now there's just doesn't have who knows but he's made his decision early.
I think we'll see what comes down the line on that presidential race.
You know President Biden the other day says oh decision will soon be made but I'm running.
But we'll make a decision.
You've got a former President Trump who I think had a terrible night in the midterms, a horrible night.
You know, Republicans are kind of saying it's time to move on.
So I, you know, there'll be a field out there.
The question is where does it start to narrow down on both sides?
I think if if in the end President Biden ends up not running, it probably hurts some Democrat chances.
I think on the Republican side, they help.
Mr Trump will make that decision not to run.
And then I think it'll be a bigger gate including, you know, our own governor potentially, who's thinking about what to do.
So, again, I don't know.
The midterms gave us a very clear picture about what 2024 looks like.
Well, my sense, too, was that Mr May, may, Mr Cotton may have calculated that the next Republican presidential primary season will be exceptionally bloody, particularly if Mr Trump gets back in there.
And no matter who emerges from it will be.
Really bloody when the when the yeah yeah.
And I think with the Convention and you know secondly so young guy and and he's got there's lots lots of election cycles to come and he may be better positioned in the future than at this particular moment where the the stars probably not going to lie and you don't want to be a loser early in your career you carry that the rest of your career.
Richard mentioned Mr Hutchinson who's made playing you know he's sniffing about the race so what's his path Richard does he have.
Got forward.
Well what happened on Tuesday maybe clear the air maybe create a bit of a lane form could you know I think with with all of these candidates who who want to get out there it is it's got to be you got to have a money money you have the financial backing and then you've got to have a message and I think Governor Hutchinson is is in that stage of you know is the money out there is the message resonating again as a Republican you can look see what happened we clearly recruited Trump backed candidates.
That we're not very good.
You can look at Pennsylvania and you can look at a couple of other states where the the Republican candidates just got shellacked and they were very openly Trump backed and and Trump accolades.
So for me I think that does create a little bit of a narrow window.
But again, the governor is going to have to raise money and he's going to get out there and go to a bunch of states early and he's going to have to connect with a lot of policymakers and decision makers and big money people in a very short amount of time.
And and I think there's a big a question how much he likes that game.
You know does he really have the appetite?
Does he fall in love with it?
Yeah.
And he's never done that before and and and he, he may he may connect for him or he may just say you know this is a lot of work.
I could go home and and and have a really nice chill pleasant life.
You don't hear much from it these days.
It plays a lot of golf.
So he might be happy the mayoral election in Little Rock.
I mean, the whole state was white.
It's Arkansas, Capital City after a while.
Yep.
So Mayor Frank Scott won again, a case of expectations.
Yeah.
Won by about 10 points over Steve Landers.
They folks thought it was going to be a much tighter race.
In fact, I think folks didn't exactly know where that race was going to go.
You know the and obviously I was part of the administration for a couple of years.
The I think the sad thing out of that race is how divided the state's capital city is.
It is.
He mayor Scott ran on a a unifying theme four years ago.
I think there was a lot of enthusiasm for him and really enthusiasm for his opponents as well.
Now this was a race that was much more voting against someone rather than voting for someone.
And Steve Landers was someone who became I think very, very scary for a lot of progressives in the city.
And I think the attacks on on Mayor Scott in the closing weeks around transparency and FOIA and things like that.
Really brought black voters his base out in strong numbers because it wasn't attack not on someone who's symbolically very important in that community.
So very divided and and it's got one on the basis of vote S at 6:30 and then some white progressive precincts just kind of north of 630 that's what put him over the edge.
But W lower rock and Northwest Ark.
Little Rock emphatically opposed.
Yeah, you know, I think.
The thing that sort of struck me in this race it, it really did kind of become a personality race, you know?
And Frank's a likeable guy.
I think that this, the Steve Landers that ran versus the Steve Landers that used to make Funny Car commercials was a stiff guy versus a guy that was kind of likable.
And I think, look, kudos to Frank Scott.
He overcame a lot.
A lot.
I don't think many people fully understand the FOIA, but people knew something's going on here.
This probably doesn't look very right.
He overcame all of that.
And one resounding to your point, Steve, the city is is not just divided, you know, maybe black, white, but it is clearly divided geographically where those communities live.
I think, I think the mayor has got to you know, is there a moment here for the Bill Clinton, I heard you, I understand I'm going to make some adjustments and I am going to be mayor for everybody moving forward.
I think there's sort of an opportunity for him.
I will say this, he picked up another supporter on the city board.
So that will help a little bit.
You know we probably went from 2 solid votes to three.
But you know like the governor and the legislature he he's got a hostile city board, if you will that he's got to work all of his initiatives through.
It didn't seem to matter that the sales tax and other things lost.
Again a big win for the for the mayor.
But there's a lot to be done.
A Little Rock the crime situation and so many other things that have got to be addressed.
He's he's got Mayor Scott has to show he can listen in a legitimate way.
I mean I think there was a lot of.
Seek of him.
John Brennan had a great column midway through the campaign that that he he has conversations with everybody but does he really act on those those conversations and and really hear people that he needs to make some changes.
I think this next few weeks are going to be a real test for him what kind of administration is going to have and as a result what kind of city Little Rock is going to be because it's a really important thing for for place that I love a lot but also a place that is so important to the state of Arkansas.
You see this so often in politics at every level.
Incumbent sticks with a circle of trusted aides, even with even when it.
Does not appear to be working very well.
Some changes need to be made.
I think the Bill Clinton 198283.
Yeah is the model that that needs to be acquired here.
Gotta cut it off there because we're on a time.
Guys, thanks as always for coming in and as always we thank you for watching.
See you next week.
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